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Nigeria’s Presidential Election Was Rigged, Don’t Congratulate Tinubu. – Chimamanda Adichie Tells Biden

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Dear president Biden,

Something remarkable happened on the morning of February 25, the day of the Nigerian presidential election. Many Nigerians went out to vote holding in their hearts a new sense of trust. Cautious trust, but still trust. Since the end of military rule in 1999, Nigerians have had little confidence in elections. To vote in a presidential election was to brace yourself for the inevitable aftermath: fraud.

Elections would be rigged because elections were always rigged; the question was how badly. Sometimes voting felt like an inconsequential gesture as predetermined “winners” were announced.

A law passed last year, the 2022 Electoral Act, changed everything. It gave legal backing to the electronic accreditation of voters and the electronic transmission of results, in a process determined by the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC). The chair of the commission, Professor Mahmood Yakubu, assured Nigerians that votes would be counted in the presence of voters and recorded in a result sheet, and that a photo of the signed sheet would immediately be uploaded to a secure server. When rumors circulated about the commission not keeping its word, Yakubu firmly rebutted them. In a speech at Chatham House in London (a favorite influence-burnishing haunt of Nigerian politicians), he reiterated that the public would be able to view “polling-unit results as soon as they are finalized on election day.”

Nigerians applauded him. If results were uploaded right after voting was concluded, then the ruling party, the All Progressives Congress (APC), which has been in power since 2015, would have no opportunity for manipulation. Technology would redeem Nigerian democracy. Results would no longer feature more votes than voters. Nigerians would no longer have their leaders chosen for them. Elections would, finally, capture the true voice of the people. And so trust and hope were born.

By the evening of February 25, 2023, that trust had dissipated. Election workers had arrived hours late, or without basic election materials. There were reports of violence, of a shooting at a polling unit, and of political operatives stealing or destroying ballot boxes. Some law-enforcement officers seemed to have colluded in voter intimidation; in Lagos, a policeman stood idly by as an APC spokesperson threatened members of a particular ethnic group who he believed would vote for the opposition.

Most egregious of all, the electoral commission reneged on its assurance to Nigerians. The presidential results were not uploaded in real time. Voters, understandably suspicious, reacted; videos from polling stations show voters shouting that results be uploaded right away. Many took cellphone photos of the result sheets. Curiously, many polling units were able to upload the results of the House and Senate elections, but not the presidential election. A relative who voted in Lagos told me, “We refused to leave the polling unit until the INEC staff uploaded the presidential result. The poor guy kept trying and kept getting an ‘error’ message. There was no network problem. I had internet on my phone. My bank app was working. The Senate and House results were easily uploaded. So why couldn’t the presidential results be uploaded on the same system?” Some electoral workers in polling units claimed that they could not upload results because they didn’t have a password, an excuse that voters understood to be subterfuge. By the end of the day, it had become obvious that something was terribly amiss.

No one was surprised when, by the morning of the 26th, social media became flooded with evidence of irregularities. Result sheets were now slowly being uploaded on the INEC portal, and could be viewed by the public. Voters compared their cellphone photos with the uploaded photos and saw alterations: numbers crossed out and rewritten; some originally written in black ink had been rewritten in blue, some blunderingly whited-out with Tipp-Ex. The election had been not only rigged, but done in such a shoddy, shabby manner that it insulted the intelligence of Nigerians.

Nigerian democracy had long been a two-party structure—power alternating between the APC and the Peoples Democratic Party—until this year, when the Labour Party, led by Peter Obi, became a third force. Obi was different; he seemed honest and accessible, and his vision of anti-corruption and self-sufficiency gave rise to a movement of supporters who called themselves “Obi-dients.” Unusually large, enthusiastic crowds turned up for his rallies. The APC considered him an upstart who could not win, because his small party lacked traditional structures. It is ironic that many images of altered result sheets showed votes overwhelmingly being transferred from the Labour Party to the APC.

As vote counting began at INEC, representatives of different political parties—except for the APC—protested. The results being counted, they said, did not reflect what they had documented at the polling units. There were too many discrepancies.

“There is no point progressing in error, Mr. Chairman. We are racing to nowhere,” one party spokesperson said to Yakubu. “Let us get it right before we proceed with the collation.” But the INEC chair, opaque-faced and lordly, refused. The counting continued swiftly until, at 4:10 a.m. on March 1, the ruling party’s candidate, Bola Tinubu, was announced as president-elect.

A subterranean silence reigned across the country. Few people celebrated. Many Nigerians were in shock. “Why,” my young cousin asked me, “did INEC not do what it said it would do?”

It seemed truly perplexing that, in the context of a closely contested election in a low-trust society, the electoral commission would ignore so many glaring red flags in its rush to announce a winner. (It had the power to pause vote counting, to investigate irregularities—as it would do in the governorship elections two weeks later.)

Rage is brewing, especially among young people. The discontent, the despair, the tension in the air have not been this palpable in years.

How surprising then to see the U.S. State Department congratulate Tinubu on March 1. “We understand that many Nigerians and some of the parties have expressed frustration about the manner in which the process was conducted and the shortcomings of technical elements that were used for the first time in a presidential election cycle,” the spokesperson said. And yet the process was described as a “competitive election” that “represents a new period for Nigerian politics and democracy.”

American intelligence surely cannot be so inept. A little homework and they would know what is manifestly obvious to me and so many others: The process was imperiled not by technical shortcomings but by deliberate manipulation.

An editorial in The Washington Post echoed the State Department in intent if not in affect. In an oddly infantilizing tone, as though intended to mollify the simpleminded, we are told that “officials have asserted that technical glitches, not sabotage, were the issue,” that “much good” came from the Nigerian elections, which are worth celebrating because, among other things, “no one has blocked highways, as happened in Brazil after Jair Bolsonaro lost his reelection bid.” We are also told that “it is encouraging, first, that the losing candidates are pursuing their claims through the courts,” though any casual observer of Nigerian politics would know that courts are the usual recourse after any election.

The editorial has the imaginative poverty so characteristic of international coverage of African issues—no reading of the country’s mood, no nuance or texture. But its intellectual laziness, unusual in such a rigorous newspaper, is astonishing. Since when does a respected paper unequivocally ascribe to benign malfunction something that may very well be malignant—just because government officials say so? There is a kind of cordial condescension in both the State Department’s and The Washington Post’s responses to the election. That the bar for what is acceptable has been so lowered can only be read as contempt.

I hope, President Biden, that you do not personally share this cordial condescension. You have spoken of the importance of a “global community for democracy,” and the need to stand up for “justice and the rule of law.” A global community for democracy cannot thrive in the face of apathy from its most powerful member. Why would the United States, which prioritizes the rule of law, endorse a president-elect who has emerged from an unlawful process?

Presidential Poll Was Rigged, Don’t Congratulate Tinubu-Chimamanda Tells Biden

Compromised is a ubiquitous word in Nigeria’s political landscape—it is used to mean “bribed” but also “corrupted,” more generally. “They have been compromised,” Nigerians will say, to explain so much that is wrong, from infrastructure failures to unpaid pensions. Many believe that the INEC chair has been “compromised,” but there is no evidence of the astronomical U.S.-dollar amounts he is rumored to have received from the president-elect. The extremely wealthy Tinubu is himself known to be an enthusiastic participant in the art of “compromising”; some Nigerians call him a “drug baron” because, in 1993, he forfeited to the United States government $460,000 of his income that a Chicago court determined to be proceeds from heroin trafficking. Tinubu has strongly denied all charges of corruption.

I hope it will not surprise you, President Biden, if I argue that the American response to the Nigerian election also bears the faint taint of that word, compromised, because it is so removed from the actual situation in Nigeria as to be disingenuous. Has the United States once again decided that what matters in Africa is not democracy but stability? (Perhaps you could tell British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak, who quickly congratulated Tinubu, that an illegitimate government in a country full of frustrated young people does not portend stability.) Or is it about that ever-effulgent nemesis China, as so much of U.S. foreign policy now invariably seems to be? The battle for influence in Africa will not be won by supporting the same undemocratic processes for which China is criticized.

This Nigerian election was supposed to be different, and the U.S. response cannot—must not—be business as usual. The Nigerian youth, long politically quiescent, have awoken. About 70 percent of Nigerians are under 30 and many voted for the first time in this election. Nigerian politicians exhibit a stupefying ability to tell barefaced lies, so to participate in political life has long required a suspension of conscience. But young people have had enough. They want transparency and truth; they want basic necessities, minimal corruption, competent political leaders, and an environment that can foster their generation’s potential.

This election is also about the continent. Nigeria is a symbolic crucible of Africa’s future, and a transparent election will rouse millions of other young Africans who are watching, and who long, too, for the substance and not the hollow form of democracy. If people have confidence in the democratic process, it engenders hope, and nothing is more essential to the human spirit than hope.

Today, election results are still being uploaded on the INEC server. Bizarrely, many contradict the results announced by INEC. The opposition parties are challenging the election in court. But there is reason to worry about whether they will get a fair ruling. INEC has not fully complied with court orders to release election materials. The credibility of the Nigerian Supreme Court has been strained by its recent judgments in political cases, or so-called judicial coronations, such as one in which the court declared the winner of the election for governor of Imo State a candidate who had come in fourth place.

Lawlessness has consequences. Every day Nigerians are coming out into the streets to protest the election. APC, uneasy about its soiled “victory,” is sounding shrill and desperate, as though still in campaign mode. It has accused the opposition party of treason, an unintelligent smear easily disproved but disquieting nonetheless, because false accusations are often used to justify malicious state actions.

I supported Peter Obi, the Labour Party candidate, and hoped he would win, as polls predicted, but I was prepared to accept any result, because we had been assured that technology would guard the sanctity of votes. The smoldering disillusionment felt by many Nigerians is not so much because their candidate did not win as because the election they had dared to trust was, in the end, so unacceptably and unforgivably flawed.

Congratulating its outcome, President Biden, tarnishes America’s self-proclaimed commitment to democracy. Please do not give the sheen of legitimacy to an illegitimate process. The United States should be what it says it is.

Sincerely,

Chimamanda Adichie.

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The 1.5°C Climate Target is Dead: The UN Says the World Must Now Pull Carbon From the Sky to Survive

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The line has been crossed. Not metaphorically, not as a warning, but as a scientific and institutional fact now acknowledged by the United Nations itself. The United Nations Environment Programme has confirmed in a new report that humanity is certain to exceed the 1.5°C warming limit set by the Paris Agreement the legally binding global treaty that has anchored the world’s climate ambitions for over a decade. And in doing so, UNEP has done something it has never done before: it has moved the language from “unlikely” to “impossible,” stripping away the diplomatic cushioning and delivering the verdict that climate scientists have long feared would eventually have to be spoken plainly.

This is the first time that UNEP has referred to staying beneath the 1.5°C warming limit as impossible rather than unlikely. The executive director of UNEP, Inger Andersen, put it with the kind of bluntness that the moment demands, writing in the report’s foreword that the 1.5°C goal must now be approached from above, meaning that the world will overshoot the threshold and then attempt to work its way back down. It is a sentence that belongs in the vocabulary of damage control, not prevention. The era of preventing the worst has quietly ended. The era of managing it has begun.

The report was not entirely without precedent in the scientific community. In February 2025, a pair of studies published in Nature Climate Change determined that Earth had likely already entered the 20-year period in which global temperatures would exceed 1.5°C. What UNEP has now done is translate that scientific assessment into institutional policy language, the kind that governments, economies, and international bodies are compelled to respond to with plans rather than pledges.

The pathway UNEP is now prescribing is called “overshoot, peak and decline.” To reduce severe threats to human health, food security, water supplies, and more, societies will need to reach net-negative greenhouse gas emissions by not only cutting those emissions, but expanding carbon dioxide removal projects. This means conventional approaches such as reforestation and ecosystem restoration, as well as newer and currently limited technologies such as carbon capture and storage machines and systems that pull carbon dioxide directly from the atmosphere and lock it underground. The report described this pathway plainly: “This is by no means an acceptable or preferred pathway. It is simply the best remaining option.”

The scale of what is being asked of the world is staggering. Technologies that remove carbon from the air and store it underground are still limited in scale, and so far, just 12 projects have been successful. To even limit warming to 1.5°C without overshooting a scenario now off the table, the world would need to deploy carbon dioxide removal technologies at rates faster than those seen for solar power, which is far from the current reality. The gap between where the world is and where it needs to be is not a gap that inspires optimism. It is one that demands urgency on a scale that no generation has yet managed to sustain.

There are also hard physical limits to what the planet can absorb even with the best technology humanity can deploy. Scientists aren’t sure Earth’s subsurface could even store the amount of carbon necessary to keep Earth at net-zero emissions, with the report warning that just maintaining net-zero CO₂ emissions could exhaust current estimated storage capacity in sedimentary basins by 2200. And practical obstacles abound large amounts of land would need to be reforested for conventional carbon removal, which could spark conflicts with agriculture, while wildfires, as well as climate change itself, could prevent or damage plant growth.

In order to bring global temperatures back to the 1.5°C mark, Earth’s warming must not exceed 1.8°C. Beyond that mark, cooling Earth back to the 1.5°C level this century becomes increasingly challenging. Without urgent action, the breaching of dangerous tipping points in Earth systems, such as irreversible changes to ice sheets or the slowing of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation will become more likely, paired with growing human and ecological suffering.

“We need stronger political will,” Andersen wrote. “Decisions taken now and in the next few years will determine whether viable options remain to reverse warming towards 1.5°C.”

For Nigeria and the broader African continent, regions that have contributed the least to global carbon emissions historically but stand to suffer the most acutely from rising temperatures, erratic rainfall, coastal flooding, and agricultural collapse, this report is not an abstraction. It is a forecast of the conditions under which millions will try to farm, find water, build cities, and survive. The 1.5°C target was never just a number. It was a promise that the world made to its most vulnerable people. That promise, the UN has now confirmed, has been broken. What happens next depends entirely on whether the world can find, in the wreckage of that broken promise, the will to do what it failed to do when doing so was still the easier option.

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AbdulRazaq Created Kwara Political Crisis, but now Blaming me for the Fallout – Wike

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The Minister of the Federal Capital Territory (FCT), Nyesom Wike, has accused Kwara State Governor AbdulRahman AbdulRazaq of creating the political crisis rocking the state and attempting to blame him for its fallout.

Wike said AbdulRazaq pushed three senators and several members of the House of Representatives out of the All Progressives Congress (APC) political arrangement, only to accuse him of sponsoring them after some found accommodation in the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP).

“He has been the one championing this campaign against me everywhere. I mean the Kwara State Governor, AbdulRahman AbdulRazaq, and I have confronted him about it,” Wike said.

“You removed three senators; you removed members of the House of Representatives. You must be a super governor to survive that.

“Strategically, if you try to remove all these people, you have a crisis in your hands, and you have to be very, very careful.”

The crisis took a dramatic turn with the defection of Kwara Central Senator Saliu Mustapha from the APC to the PDP, where he subsequently emerged as the party’s senatorial candidate.

Mustapha’s defection, alongside the exit of other prominent APC figures, has rattled the political establishment in Kwara and significantly altered calculations ahead of the 2027 elections.

Wike questioned what AbdulRazaq expected the displaced politicians to do after shutting them out of the APC, saying they could have joined the ADC or NDC, where their support for President Bola Tinubu could not be guaranteed.

“These senators you removed, you have no place for them. Therefore, did you prefer them to go to ADC or to go to NDC, which is opposing Mr President fervently?” he asked.

Wike said rather than appreciate that the politicians joined a PDP tendency still supporting Tinubu, AbdulRazaq had resorted to portraying him as the mastermind of opposition against his government.

“The Governor of Kwara State now takes this propaganda to their own level, saying that Wike is now sponsoring a candidate in Kwara because I am supporting Saraki,” he said.

Wike dismissed the allegation, insisting that his support for Tinubu did not mean the PDP would stop fielding candidates against the APC.

“Did I have any agreement that now that we are supporting Mr President, PDP will not have any candidate anywhere?” he asked.

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Nigeria’s Electricity Subsidy Obligation Hits N1.92trn in 2025 — NERC

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The Federal Government incurred a gross electricity tariff subsidy obligation of N1.928 trillion in 2025, according to the Nigerian Electricity Regulatory Commission (NERC).

The figure represents the amount required to bridge the gap between cost-reflective electricity tariffs and the lower rates approved for customers.

According to NERC’s 2025 industry report, the subsidy obligation represented 57.44 per cent of the total Nigerian Bulk Electricity Trading (NBET) invoice, averaging about N160.69 billion per month.

 

Subsidy Burden Declined Slightly

Despite the huge financial burden, the 2025 figure was slightly lower than the N1.949 trillion recorded in 2024.

NERC reported that the subsidy obligation stood at:

– N536.40 billion in the first quarter

– N514.36 billion in the second quarter

– N458.76 billion in the third quarter

– N418.79 billion in the fourth quarter

The quarterly figures show a gradual decline in the subsidy obligation as the year progressed.

 

Why Electricity Subsidy Remained High

NERC attributed the subsidy burden largely to the Federal Government’s policy of maintaining approved customer tariffs even as the cost of supplying electricity increased.

Because tariffs paid by many consumers remained below cost-reflective levels, the government was required to absorb the difference.

The commission said the gradual decline in the subsidy obligation was partly driven by lower energy off-take by electricity distribution companies (DisCos) and a higher proportion of electricity being allocated to Band A customers.

 

More Electricity Allocated to Band A

NERC disclosed that the share of energy allocated to Band A customers increased from 40 per cent to 45 per cent in the fourth quarter of 2025.

Band A customers are those expected to receive significantly longer daily electricity supply than customers in the lower service bands.

The shift in energy allocation formed part of efforts to improve the commercial performance of electricity distribution and encourage better service delivery.

 

DisCos Billed N2.99trn, Collected N2.32trn

NERC also reported significant collection challenges within the distribution segment of the electricity market.

The 11 DisCos collectively billed customers N2.988 trillion in 2025 but collected only N2.319 trillion, leaving an outstanding balance of approximately N669.49 billion.

The resulting collection efficiency stood at 77.60 per cent.

Eko DisCo recorded the highest collection efficiency at 87.90 per cent, closely followed by Ikeja DisCo at 87.89 per cent, while Kaduna DisCo recorded the lowest at 45.68 per cent.

 

Financial Pressure on Power Sector

The combination of tariff subsidies and collection inefficiencies continues to place pressure on the finances of Nigeria’s electricity market.

NERC warned that weak liquidity in the sector could limit the ability of market participants to invest in infrastructure and expand electricity supply.

The latest figures therefore highlight the continuing challenge of balancing affordable electricity tariffs for consumers with the need to ensure that electricity providers receive enough revenue to operate sustainably.

With the government absorbing more than N1.9 trillion in tariff shortfalls in 2025, the future of electricity pricing and subsidy policy remains a major issue for Nigeria’s power sector.

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